NEW ENGLAND 17

ST. LOUIS 23



KANSS CTY 31

PHILDLPHIA 20


LINE

SAT

-6

-7 (-7.5)

SUN

-3

-5.5

















14 Tennssee $$

29 Carolina $$



38 Indianplis $$

17 Green Bay $$
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2003 PLAYOFFS
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EXOTICS
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1.10.04
I too have been impressed by Favre's play since his father's passing. However, as we look to turn the tide back to our mid-season winning ways, we must remember the #1 rule, 'Don't get emotional'. Unlike the Pickin' Winners As A Featured Handicapper! friendly confines of Lambeau field, Philly will be savagely evil as always as they root on McNabb's Eagles that open the game 5-1 ATS versus the AFC North, and 5-1 ATS in January games, over the last 3 seasons.

One can't not help be impressed by the Pack's 3 game run, averaging 35 points on 437 yards highlighting Favre's (90.4 rating during the regular season) 66.% completion percentage on 7.6 yard per attempt on the Road this year. Although Green, the NFC's #1 rusher devoured defensive lines averaging 5.3 yard per carry, the Pack were barely able to squeeze by the Seahawks (who were 1-7 on the Road in 2003) last week.

Hasselbeck's ability to roll up 305 passing yards highlights Green Bay's weakness, and a preview of what McNabb (79.6 rating in 2003), whose maturity and ball control play-action off the 'three-headed-monster' in the backfield of Westbrook (3.8 yard per carry), Buckhalter (4.3 yard per carry), and Staley (4.8 yard per carry), has outscored opponents by 12 in their last 5 games, look to repeat last year's beating of the Falcons 20-6. Reid will produce no suprises, the defense will bend as they have all year (allowing the opposition to a 4.5 yard per carry at Home in 2003), tighten up in the red zone, and create the critical turnover in the secondary that has allowed them comfortable leads at half, and by game's end all year.

1-3 ATS in play-off games over the last 3 years, Green Bay's angel doesn't even have enough magic to save the Pack in this one.
PHILADELPHIA -5.5



1.10.04
It is amazing to me that after a year in the lights and defeats in 2002, even a 8-0 Home record, and 14-1-1 record ATS in 2003, many folks still don't believe; many are waiting on the sidelines to jump on the Pats bandwagon, finding it easier to talk up Manning's Colts after their monster upset (after playing 'possum' to Denver in Week 16). As you already know, The Director never waits on the sideline.

Although the Pats enter 18-6 ATS at Home, and 2-0 ATS in Play-offs at Home over the last 3 seasons, many still believe that the injured George (88 yards in Baltimore) will be able to mount a rushing attack on the Pats' Vrabel (9.5 sacks, 52 tackles) and Seymour (8 sackes, 56 tackles), who are only allowing 3.3 yard per rush at Home in 2003. Not a chance. Many believe that the injured McNair (AFCS's #1 at 100.4 rating in 2003), whose spirited 14 completions proved victorious in Baltimore, will again prove heroic against the Pats secondary, who are allowing only 5.4 yard per attempt at Home to oppoostion quarterbacks in 2003. Not a chance. Many still believe that a defense that allowed 17 points and 214 passsing yards to Wright will stop Brady, whose 85.1 rated performance in 2003, and 6.87 yards per attempt seems to only spell 'v-i-c-t-o-r-y' this season. Not a chance.

Arriving allowing only 8.5 point per game at Home this year, this game will be a clinic in the play-action, as a week of rest allows the Pats power rushing combo of Smith (49.4 yards per game) and Faulk (42.3 yards per game) to wear down a tired Titan defensive line. As we have seen all year, when lulled to sleep, Bellichick will target downfield to Branch (14.1 yard per catch) and Givens (15 yards per catch); a strategy which has allowed the Pats to outscore opponents by over 13 points in its last 5 contests.

Having already taken out the Titans in October with a 31 point second half, the Pats launch their Play-off run by taking advantage of a Titan team, 1-3 ATS in Play-offs, 1-3 as 3.5 to 9.5 point Underdogs, 2-4 ATS versus AFC East opponents, over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND -6





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11-13-0
final record through picks of 1.4.04


An NCAA amateur, The Director in jumped on board
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NCAA and NFL Football Wagering Tips

By Rich Green

Emotion--
The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as Steve Spurrier, Bobby Bowden, Sonny Lubick, Phillip Fulmer, Jackie Sherrill, Dennis Erickson, and Lou Holtz among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years...


READ ON




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BEWARE! SCAMDICAPPERS

By William D. Foote

“No enemy is worse than bad advice”- Sophocles

With an ever increasing amount of sports handicapping services available, it is getting harder and harder for the novice to find and trust a reputable advisory service. We would not be going out on a limb by saying that at least 90% of the outfits in operation are doing their clients more harm than good. There are several reasons why this is the case.

Each service has its own way of doing business. There are innumerable different fashions in which they bend the rules of candor. While we do not have the time or the willingness to detail the many types of duplicity present in this industry, we will illustrate three of the more common scenarios we see. Each has their own distinctive impact on the reputation of the sports handicapping trade...


CONTINUE HERE



JIMMY VACCARO


- NO FREE PLAY -


-Jimmy Vaccaro
jimmyvaccaro.com



RICH GREEN


1.11.04
3*** PHILADELPHIA -5 Over Green Bay
(NFC Divisional Playoff, 4:45 et)

Here is today's Free release on the NFL.
The Eagles of the NFC East under Head Coach Andy Reid won their Division with a 12-4 Straight Up record. They hold Home Field advantage through the NFC Playoffs. They won 10 out of their last 11 games SU, and have their sights set on nothing less than a Super Bowl victory. Today the Eagles get a chance to again advance to the NFC Title game with a win, this time versus the Panthers. They figure to make the most of this chance, and will be hoping that the third time in a row will be the charm.

The Packers under Head Coach Mike Sherman won the NFC North with a SU record of 10-6. Last week they went to OverTime and defeated the Seahawks at Home to advance to this match up. The Packers have won five in a row, and seven out of eight SU. They have the best Quarterback in the League with Brett Favre, IMHO. Today they must step up their play again on the Road versus a potent rival.

The line overnited at Eagles -3.5 and has been moving up. We'll go with the Home Eagles here today in a Good Free Play. For those who don't know it, our Members rarely wager on the FREE release, and instead invest their money wisely on the Gold Key Plays.


1.10.04
3*** NEW ENGLAND -5.5 Over Tennessee
(AFC Divisional Playoff, 8:15 et)

We are on a great roll with our Gold Key Basketball Plays, and we won outright with the Pacers last night. We have a ridiculous deal on site for the rest of Gold Key Basketball for only $195, and this now includes the rest of the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl! Here is today's Free release on the NFL.

The Patriots of the AFC East under Head Coach Bill Belichick won their Division with an awesome 14-2 Straight Up record. This earned them a Bye last week, and plenty of time to prepare for this event. The Patriots were undefeated at Home, with wins over the Jets, Titans, Giants, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Jaguars and Bills. Their only SU losses at all were on the Road to start the year at the Bills, and in Game Four at the Redskins. The Patriots are simply a team that finds a way to win and cover.

The Titans of the AFC South under Head Coach Jeff Fisher finished the regular season with a 12-4 SU record. Last week they got by the Ravens on the Road in their AFC Wild Card Playoff game. They are a tough team that plays well on the Road, and in all conditions. And with temperatures and wind chill similar to parts of Siberia, they will have to adjust again tonight. The Titans are always banged up, currently at Quarterback and Running Back. Their decision during the season to go to more of an open air attack may hurt them tonight, and RB George has rarely come through in his career versus great Defenses.

The line overnited at Patriots -5.5. We'll go with the Home Patriots here today in a Good Free Play. For those who don't know it, our Members rarely wager on the FREE release, and instead invest their money wisely on the Gold Key Plays.

-Rich Green
editor@freesportsletter.com


SPORTS BETTING: PERCENTAGE NEEDED TO WIN?

Suppose you lay a wager of $100, if you win you would collect an equal amount ($100), but if you loss you would lose $110, a fee of 10% (Juice). (Juice is the bookmaker's commission, also known as vig)

Example: 100 bets in equal amounts of $100 wagered per bet totals $5000. Assume you won 50% of the bets, you would have won on the winning games $5000 and on your losing games you would have lost $5500. The results would be a deficit of $500. Be that as it may the percentage needed to win is actually 52.4%.

Hypothetically, if you won 53 bets of $100 each, out of one hundred bets placed (53%). Your return on the winning bets is $5300 and the losing bets would total $5170. Bottom line profit is $130 net.

The number you need to have a profitable season in betting Football or Basketball is fifty-three percent (53%) or better.




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as of 12.29.03
2003 FINAL REGULAR SEASON

AFC OFFENSIVE LEADERS

Kansas City 369.4 ypg 120.6 rypg 30.3 pts
Indianapolis 367.1 ypg 261.2 pypg 27.9 pts
Denver 349.9 ypg 164.3 rypg 23.8 pts
Tennessee 343.8 ypg 242.4 pypg 27.2 pts
Jacksonville 334.9 ypg 129.6 rypg 17.3 pts

NFC OFFENSIVE LEADERS

Minnesota 393.4 ypg 146.4 rypg 26 pts
Green Bay 362.4 ypg 159.9 rypg 27.6 pts
San Francisco 355.4 ypg 142.4 rypg 24 pts
Seattle 351.7 ypg 125.6 rypg 25.3 pts
St. Louis 341.1 ypg 247.6 pypg 27.9 pts



as of 12.29.03
2003 FINAL REGULAR SEASON

AFC DEFENSIVE LEADERS

Buffalo 269.6 ypg 169.2 pypg 17.4 pts
Baltimore 271.3 ypg 96 rypg 17.6 pts
Denver 277.1 ypg 176.8 pypg 18.8 pts
Jacksonville 291.1 ypg 87.9 rypg 20.7 pts
New England 291.6 ypg 89.6 rypg 14.9 pts

NFC DEFENSIVE LEADERS

Dallas 253.5 ypg 89.1 rypg 16.3 pts
Tampa Bay 279.1 ypg 169.4 pypg 16.5 pts
Carolina 295.3 ypg 187.7 pypg 19 pts
San Francisco 308 ypg 105.6 rypg 21.1 pts
Chicago 309.2 ypg 192.6 pypg 21.6 pts


*These ODDS courtesy MVPSportsbook.com as of 1.10.04
**For entertainment purposes ONLY.