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AFC EAST
BUFFALO
to win AFC EAST: +350 (+300)
to win OVER 8.5 games: -130 (-150)
to win UNDER 8.5 games: -110 (+110)
MIAMI
to win AFC EAST: +110 (+150)
to win OVER 9.5 games: -175 (-145)
to win UNDER 9.5 games: +125 (+105)
This is the NFL's version of the Detroit
Red Wings. Talent. Talent.
Talent. If injuries can be avoided, fans will be just as excited
as they were through the first 8 games of last year. The numbers
were skewed due to injury. What is fact is that Ricky Williams
as the AFC's #1 rushing leader, averaging 115.8 yards per game
on 1853 yards. This guy is the 'iron horse' with 383 attempts.
Returning for Fiedler, and now Brian Griese(DEN), who while plagued
by injuries and interceptions last year, brings a wealth of
experience in how to beat AFC's contender's dominating defenses,
is the balanced downfield attack of Chambers, averaging 14.1 yards
per catch, Gadsen, McKnight, and key acquisition Derrius Thompson(WAS),
who also averaged an outstanding 14.6 yards per catch. The AFC's
#1 defense, allowing only 291 yards per game returns even stronger
with the spiritual leadership of Junior Seau(SD), to play along side
leading rusher Jason Taylor, 18.5 sacks, and leading tackler
Zach Thomas, 156 tackles. Defensive coordinator, Doug Blevins,
should provide some major fireworks from the opening kick-off;
able to dominate a soft schedule by clamping down on 2003's 4.0 yards per
rush and 10.8 yard per pass average. If Lucas returns to run preseason,
we will be on the opposition. When it is 'Real', WE WILL BE ON THE WAGON
- ALL THE WAY TO THE AFC EAST TITLE - POTENTIALLY THE AFC.
NEW ENGLAND
to win AFC EAST: +300 (+200)
to win OVER 8.5 games: -145(-155)
to win UNDER 8.5 games: +105 (+115)
Interesting to me has been S.I.'s excitement with
the Patriot's signing of linebacker, Rosevelt Colvin and safety, Rodney
Harrison. Hey Dr. Z, the real issue was Brady's inability to muster points
at the close of 2002 (averaging only 19.9 ppg in the last 5); their
rushing attack producing only 94.3 ypg througout 2002, one of the AFC and
NFL's worst. Addressing the lack of offensive fire power will be a must
if they are going to compete for a title.
N.Y. JETS
to win AFC EAST: +225 (+150)
to win OVER 9 games: -125 (-140)
to win UNDER 9 games: -115 (+100)
Before you read this, it comes with the disclaimer that I am a fan of the Jets
will to win. This is truly a 'team' starting at the top with Herman Edwards.
His Zen style of confidence allowing 'the master', Testeverde, to guide
Pennington aka 'grasshopper' to the top spot among NFL's elite and most exciting
last year; achieving a rating of 104.2 with a 68.9 completion percentage for 3170
yards and an AFC leading 1.5% interception percentage. However, it only produced
the AFC's #12 offense? Balance was the name of the game? Curtis Martin leading
the way with 4.2 average, 68.4 yards per game. "We (he and Lamont Jordan) can
be that 1-2 punch, that tag team, that throws teams off balance."
(Footballguys.com, NY Post, 7.26.03) With the departure of top
producing Coles, veteran Jet receivers in Moss, who was able to break nearly 30%
of his catches for 20+ yards (433 total yards), and Chrebet, who produced 9
touchdowns on only 46.1 receiving yards per game, will have to turn up their
game. Management stayed 'true' to itself in acquiring Curtis Conway(SD) as the
third muskateer this year, who under double coverage in most games, managed a
14.9 average on 65.5 yards per game. "I think our receiving corps is stronger
than last year...The reason I think it is stronger is because we've had to work
harder and we've come together. We're stepping up our play," Pennnigton said
after the Jet's morning practice, their first day of training camp.
(Footballguys.com, NJ.com, 7.26.03) Key is the
addition of G, Tom Nutton(ST.L), who should give Pennington the extra step he
needs against the top contenders in the East. The question is how do you fix
the defense which sacrificed 5463 yards? It depends on how you look at it -
The Jets housed one of the lowest yards per completion at 9.6, one of the
highest turnover rates at 2.4, while only sacrificing 17.8 first downs per game.
The problem was the 4.5 average yards per rush. Gambling on its existing, aging
crew, the hope is that veteran linebackers and a young secondary with the single
addition of CB, Tyrone Carter(MINN) will find a strategy to do so...
Unfortunately, we are not so sure...
NORTH
BALTIMORE
to win AFC NORTH: +350 (+300)
to win OVER 7.5 games: -145 (-160)
to win UNDER 7.5 games: +105 (+120)
CINCINNATI
to win AFC NORTH: +4500 (+3000)
to win OVER 5.5 games: -120 (-110)
to win UNDER 5.5 games: -120 (-130)
I have spent good time taking a look at 2002's NFL debaucle. If you uncover
the layers, is it really? The Bengals managed a respectable offensive
attack, managing 108.1 rushing yards per game along side 217.3 yards through
the air. However, they repeatedly came up short; 9.9 yards per completion
and only 12.4 points per game. Still with only two wins to his credit last
year, Kitna managed to stay on his feet (only 24 sacks) and achieve
a 79.1 rating. Corey Dillon standing just outside the NFL's top 10
rushers with 1311 yards, almost all under 20+ yards. Brandon Bennett
and Rudi Johnson stepping up as receievers, good receivers. So what
was missing here that had the whole country laughing? A coach, a
tight-end, and a maybe a full-back offer a play-action threat. Management
answered with all three, including TE, Reggie Kelly(ATL), and
the hiring of the well respected Marvin Lewis as coach.
'This is no longer your parent's cadillac', the
defense will be fully loaded this year. They will look to tighten the
holes that allowed an average of 29.6 points per game in the last five,
243.2 of points coming from air attack. They will look to add heat
and shut down the rush with DT, Thornton(TEN), and DE, Powell(WAS).
Ket is the acquisition of CB, Tory James(OAK), who will bring a wealth
of defensive experience (and hopefull a couple of interceptions). This
is my sleeper - watch them wake!
CLEVELAND
to win AFC NORTH: +210 (+170)
to win OVER 8.5 games: +115 (-135)
to win UNDER 8.5 games: -155 (-105)
PITTSBURGH
to win AFC NORTH: -200 (-125)
to win OVER 9.5 games: -130 (-160)
to win UNDER 9.5 games: -110 (+120)
"I think every year you have to prove yourself", Coach Bill Cowher echoed.
(Footballguys.com, Tribune-Review, 7.26.03)
To hear a diehard Steeler Fan tell it, "This is the Year!" To hear a diehard
tell it, the offense is ready to capitlize on last year's performance as the
AFC's #4 offense with 372 yards, and 24.4 points per game. Rollin' with two
of the most electric receivers in the game today, the Steelers will again count
on Ward, who had 112 receptions, 83 yards per game, 19 for over 20+ yards, and
Burress, who managed an outstanding 17 yards per catch. Randle El will also be
in the mix cutting his teeth last year on 10.4 yards per reception on only 30.6
yards per game; his key was his ability to 'double' as a running back and the
trick play. The real question is Bettis' health, slowing to a 3.6 yard average
last year (diehards will tell you that is his 'style'). 2003's answer may be
Ma'afala or Zereoue, whose 47.6 yards per game average last year does not have
me convinced that the 5'8" back can run in a 'land of giants' (translation: he
is no Barry Sanders). Our bigger fear is that Maddox, who had the AFC's highest
interception percentage at 4.2%, while only throwing for 2836 yards, and
maintaining one of the highest touchdown percentages at 5.3%, in suffering a
concussion will go the way of Aikman - 'Down n' Out'. The alternative, Charlie
Batch (translation: not really). Maddox will continue to take hits trying to
'thread the needle' instead of checking to the TE; Bruener only managing 66 yards
last year. Even diehards will tell you that the AFC's #3 defense, who was one
of the most penalized while winning the battle of the clock, #1 against the
rush (allowing only 85.9 yards per game), must find a way to slow opposing
passing attacks that cursed their success last year. Porter, Gildon, and the
rest of the crew must find someone that can deliver over 100 tackles. Their hope
is rookie, Polamalu, knowing that if Bell and Parrior must thnik 'pass', they
will again fall victim to high powered offenses. Closing the season with only
2 of 5 victories ATS by outscoring their opponents by a mere 2.6 points per game
encourages us to see if Jeckyl or Hyde shows up to play this year. P.S. Was
Jeff Reed a 'flash-in-the-pan'? or will he will be come to the rescue when the
games are close?
SOUTH
HOUSTON
to win AFC SOUTH: +4500 (+3000)
to win OVER 5 games: -120 (-125)
to win UNDER 5 games: -120 (-115)
No matter how you splice-it-and-dice Texas, the only thing that is HOT there are
OUR FANS. The AFC's worst and most penalized offense is at work here,
including NFL's 31st rushing attack with 84.2 yards per game, 2.9 yards per rush;
no better was the NFL's worst passing attack averaging 139.1 yards through the
air. Has any team in history only averaged 13.3 points per game? Closing out
the season being outscored by 7 points per game on 12 offensive points,
management rushed out to acquire running back Stacey Mack(JACK), who had minimal
carries with 98 attempts, to run behind RT, Greg Randall (NE), and take over
Well's role (33.1 ypg) as the back of choice. Can this really make a
difference? David Carr, the AFC's worst quaterback (62.8 rating), needed
receivers, and management continued to focus defensively with linebackers.
Interesting and failing strategy. Opening on the road, there may be only 2 to 3
wins ahead for them this year.
INDIANAPOLIS
to win AFC SOUTH: +150
to win OVER 8.5 games: -130 (-140)
to win UNDER 8.5 games: -110 (+100)
JACKSONVILLE
to win AFC SOUTH: +650 (+6000)
to win OVER 7 games: -155 (+120)
to win UNDER 7 games: +115 (-160)
TENNESSEE
to win AFC SOUTH: -170 (-135)
to win OVER 9.5 games: -125 (-150)
to win UNDER 9.5 games: -115 (+110)
WEST
DENVER
to win AFC WEST: +170
to win OVER 9.5 games: -125 (-145)
to win UNDER 9.5 games: -115 (+105)
Hmm..interesting is a team that is AFC's #2 Offense producing 380.6 yards per
game would abandon Griese, who managed one the AFC's highest yards per attempt
at 7.37, and highest completion percentages with 66.7%. Was I the only one that
realized that the 6-2 Broncos were 'broken' by Romanowski's strange Monday Night
hit that took down the Bronco's key TE, Shannon Sharpe on 11/11. Without him,
the team would lose 4 of 5. The problem in the frozen tundra known as Mile High
is staying healthy; will Plummer? Has he ever played in cold weather? "He's
just got a great personality for the situation that he's been thrust into,"
general manager Ted Sundquist says of Plummer. "He realizes how important
football is to Denver, realizes our analyis and interpretatino of why we haven't
succeeded in the last couple of years, and realizes what his role is here."
(FootballGuys.com, AP.org, 7.27.03)
Expectations are blistering due to one of the most talented offenses in the
league. He will have Portis, who brings the 2002 NFL's highest rushing
average at 5.5 yards per rush driving 1508 yards. He will also have plenty of
targets in Smith, McCaffrey, and Lelie, all who averaged over 11 yards per catch,
and 11 catches of 20+ yards - Now that is a downfield threat. "All three of
us will get a lot of opportunities," said McCaffrey. "We're all going to get
opportunities to make plays..." (Football Guys,
DenverPost.com, 7.26.03)
Key to this offense will be Plummer's ability to
use Sharpe's keen ability to gain his 50+ key yards per game (averaging 11.2
yards per game). The AFC's #2 defense, and #2 against the run will be even
stronger with the addition of DT, Daryl Gardner(WAS), (who as of 7/25 is now out
due to an injury caused under questionable circumstances), found itself losing
games against the pass as it sacrificed 21.1 points, and 18.3 first downs per
game. With the Orange Crush focussing all its energy on Plummer, pressure will
fall on new acquisition S, Nick Ferguson(NYJ) to slow the opposition. As they
say in, 'offense sells tickets, but defense win's Super Bowls'. The Crush will
be looking to outscore their opponents to win.
KANSAS CITY
to win AFC WEST: +355 (+300)
to win OVER 9 games: -125 (-135)
to win UNDER 9 games: -115 (-105)
OAKLAND
to win AFC WEST: +155 (+160)
to win OVER 9.5 games: -130 (-145)
to win UNDER 9.5 games: -110 (+105)
Let me be as unorginal as possible. Last year's Super Bowl 'crow-eating',
Barret Robbins, and age will be on the only elements the Raiders will have
to battle to return to a division championshp. Gannon, the AFC's #2
rated quarterback(97.3), returns to the helm with an amazing 1.6 interception
percentage, and league leading 4689 total yards in 2002. Having been
sacked 36 times for 214 yards, a big question is the release of blocking
back John Ritchie. Returning future hall of famers, Rice and Brown,
who combined for over 2100 yards in receptions, should have even more
open space with the continued maturity of Jolley at tight-end,
who average over 12.8 yards per catch. Even more amazing is Garner, who became
the 'double threat' with over 1800 by air and by ground last year. The real
question is the ability of this offensive powerhouse to stop the opposition.
Having kept the opposition to 19 points per game during the 2002 regular season,
an aging defensive line will be pushed to the limit. With the secondary anchored
by furture hall of famer, Woodson, who racked up 82 tackles, 8 interceptions, and
16 passes defended, the key will be reducing 4.5 yards per rush, and 18.5 first
downs allowed per game; which while very respectable, was the key exploit in
their losses. With two respected tacklers in Romanowski (91 tackles) and Barton
(124 tackles and 4 passes defended), and Coleman, one of the NFL's leading
sackers with 11 last year, they will be counting on Parella and Stubblefield(SF)
to step it up and slow first down gains. WE WILL PLAY THEM TO TAKE THE AFC WEST.
SAN DIEGO
to win AFC WEST: +380 (+300)
to win OVER 8.5 games: +115 (+100)
to win UNDER 8.5 games: -155 (-140)
I was there in Qualcomm in December to watch Schottenheimer's weak play calling
lead to a crushing overtime loss to Seattle; critical holes in the defense
leaving the door open. Trading away JunioR Seau, the team's spiritual and
emotional leader, one of the AFC's worst rushing defenses should create even
tougher challenges for the offense, who in trading away Conway (averaging
14.9 yards per catch) in 2003, has pinned all its hopes on the shoulders of
newly acquired David Boston. Hoping to have more room off the play/action
with Tomlinson, the AFC's #2 rusher with 1683 yards last year, Brees
will need to find a way to increase the 20 points they averaged through the
last 5 games. Title. NO. Will prove to be one of the BEST BETS AGAINST,
especially AWAY.
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NFC EAST
DALLAS
to win NFC EAST: +1000 (+450)
to win OVER 7.5 games: +120 (-105)
to win UNDER 7.5 games: -160 (-135)
This is a 'match made in heaven' for two of the most unlikd in the NFL, Jones
and Parcells. The Cowboys will be looking to Hutchinson, one of the NFL's worst
rated quaterbacks (66.3) to revive one of the NFC's worst producers, 13.6 points
per game in 2003. Abandoning Emmit, the attack will rely on Wiley, who only
had 1.6 carries per game in 2003. Filling the NFC's #8 running back, and future
hall-of-famer will prove to be a collosal and disappointing undertaking. Instead
they will try to attack by air with the newly acquired, Terry Glynn(GB) downfield.
They will need to stop opposing offenses; an even tougher challenge allowing
329.2 ypg and 20.6 points per game. Al Singleton(TB) and Donald Mitchell(TEN) hope
to bring an 'A' game and make a difference. They WON'T, and Dallas will continue
where they left off, 29 of 32 in offensive production, outscored by 12 points per
game in the last 5. PLAY the OPPONENT, especially AWAY.
N.Y. GIANTS
to win NFC EAST: +230 (+200)
to win OVER 9 games: +110 (+120)
to win UNDER 9 games: -150 (-160)
Am I the only one who am confused by the 'N.Y. Football
Giants'. Having lost a shot at the NFC title with a defense that ultimately
played like swiss cheese, their off-season play is to try to better last year's
#2 offense in the NFC (averaging over 364 yards per game in 2002). Only yards
away from the NFC rushing title, Barber steam-rolled defenses for 1387 total
yards. 'Thunder' and 'Lightning' igniting the season with Dayne's 125 attempts
for 428 yards. With the welcome departure of Jason Seahorn, who has lost two
title games based on his inability to cover the post pattern, the front office
acquires Dorsey Levens, who managed only 25.7 yards per game last year. Can he
play corner? Or safety? A running back controversy will clearly not assist in
trying to finally have a quick start to the season.
PHILADELPHIA
to win NFC EAST: -150 (-125)
to win OVER 10.5 games: +100
to win UNDER 10.5 games: -140
WASHINGTON
to win NFC EAST: +500 (+550)
to win OVER 7.5 games: -150 (-175)
to win UNDER 7.5 games: +110 (+125)
NORTH
CHICAGO
to win NFC NORTH: +550 (+350)
to win OVER 7.5 games: +115
to win UNDER 7.5 games: -155
"He (Stewart) is a player who's had quite a number of reps in this league and
you don't get there without knowing what your doing, Offensive Coordinator John
Shoop said. "He's picked it up a great deal and has worked very hard at
doing so." - Closing the 2002 season as one of the worst NFL offenses (averaging only 223.8
overall offensive ypg; averaging only 274.7 overall ypg througout 2002),
Soldier Field will rejoice in the creative addition of Kordell Stewart to the
squad. Those sportswriters that favor Chris Chandler, or a rookie from the
upcoming draft, must have forgotten that Stewart had topped Maddox's completion
percentage at 65.7%, averaging 6.9 yard per pass in 2002; a double-barrel threat
to say the least averaging 4.4 yards per rush in 2002 as well. Having faced some
of the toughest defenses while leading the Steelers, the Lions' and Vikings'
defense will be a welcome sight.
DETROIT
to win NFC NORTH: +2000 (+110)
to win OVER 6 games: -120 (-115)
to win UNDER 6 games: -120 (-125)
Fans rejoice. The 'Evil Empire' is working to correct the near worst defense
in the NFL which averaged 28.2 points on 382.3 yards per game. By signing
Earl Holmes, the backbone of Cleveland's dominating 'D' and adding, linebacker,
Rainer(JAC), and cornerback, Bly(ST.L) they will look to slow down opposing
offenses who managed over 11 yards per completion, and 20.1 first downs per game
(I need not note that those were NFL leading statistics). They have taken steps
to plug the holes. In a defense that allowed over 20 first downs per game.
'Course that will not help the offense which closed the season managing only
92.3 yards per game behind the worst quarterback in the NFC, Joey Harrington
(59.9 rating)(who has a big fan in The Director). Can Bryson(BUF), who has
not even been on the map assist Stewart, who managed a respectable 1021
yards last year in the NFL's top 20(72.9 yards per game)? Mariucci will find
himself in unfamilar territory - unlike the flashy West, here he will have
to find ways to 'grind out' wins. The sideline will be as ugly as their
record. Don't expect much.
GREEN BAY
to win NFC NORTH: -250 (-150)
to win OVER 10 games: -135 (+100)
to win UNDER 10 games: -105 (-140)
It is interesting to see what management does when a team dies on the vine
against real competition. If Favre wasn't convince to retire, he will be after
2003. Against the usual soft opponents, the Pack's leader rolled up an 85.6
rating as the NFL's #5 quaterback. Although he managed one of the highest TD
percentages at 4.9 on 3658 yards, trouble was always around the corner seen in
his 2.9% interception percentage and 26 sacks for 188 yards. The loss of Glenn,
who averaged 14.6 yards per catch (817 total yards) will allow defenses to focus
on Driver, and press up on the running game which is key to Favre's timeless
success. More pressure on the short game in TE, Franks, 8.2 yards per catch for
442 total yards in 2002. More pressure on Green. 'Course, how can you? 1240
rushing yards - 393 receiving yards. The real concern was sacrificing Holliday
(Sherman showering endless compliments in this week's ESPN NFL Film on their 2002),
who having shown his fire in the Hall of Fame Game, was critical to sparking
Gbaja-B'amila (12 sacks), and Hunt's success (5.5 sacks) on the left side of
the line. The additional abandonment of Nickerson leaves newcomer Diggs(DET),
84 tackles last year, in a 'must' position to make an immediate impact; slow
opposing offenses that rolled out 12.8 yards per game on the ground.
Outscoring opponents by an average of only 1 point in the last five regular
season games, the secondary led by Pro Bowl FS, Darren Sharper, and newcomer
Al Harris(PHI), who will need to prevent the big play, and give Favre the
opportunity to be a hero. WATCH. WAIT. TAKE THE BEARS FOR THE LONG-SHOT TO
EDGE THEM OUT FOR THE DIVISION.
MINNESOTA
to win NFC NORTH: +250
to win OVER 7.5 games: -125 (-175)
to win UNDER 7.5 games: -115 (+125)
Having maintained the NFC's leading offense for most of last year (averaging
387 ypg, 230.3 passing), partially due to a couple of starts by the The
Frenchman, Todd Bouman, of St. Cloud State, there seems to be little gained
from the addition of Gus Frerotte, and detested journeyman, Jeff George, except
more sideline hijinx and mayhem.
SOUTH
ATLANTA
to win NFC SOUTH: +250 (+225)
to win OVER 7.5 games: 125 (-140)
to win UNDER 7.5 games: 115 (+100)
All 9 wins were earned in 2003. Most important, Michael Vick, who maintained
one of the lowest interception percentages at 1.9% proved the Falcons are
for 'Real'. The NFC's #2 rushing attack, averaged 147 yards per game. Management
has added two potent weapons in the AFC's #6 receiver, Peerless Price, who
averaged 78.3 yards per game, 13.3 per catch, and under-utilized Cardinals
receiver, Marty Jenkins, who battled for an average of 11.3 yard per catch.
The real question will be can the defense, who faltered at season cloes
allowing 25.4 points per game in the final 5 games improve on one of the worst
rushing defenses, which allowed 127.9 yards per game; with no additions to the
defensive line, acquired linebackers Twain Russell(MIA) and Keith Newman(BUF)
will have to step up along side linebacker staple, the NFC's #2, Brookings,
who conquered the field with 140 tackles, to conquer a division or AFC title.
We like the looks of this. Definitely another year to play the OVER.
CAROLINA
to win NFC SOUTH: +900
to win OVER 7.5 games: -110 (-155)
to win UNDER 7.5 games: -130 (+115)
I didn't watch the Panthers much until I purchased an autographed ball
mid-season. What found was a team with the NFC's #2 defense; a crew
which kept games close by keeping opposing offenses to only
290.4 yards per game; opposing rushing attacks only averaging 100.3
yards per game. Behind the dominating presence of Julius Peppers, games
were ultimately lost in the secondary as they sacrificed 19 first downs per
game on 11.9 yards per completion. Could this still be a critical
hole? The real trouble was the offense which suffered painful injuries
to both Peete, who managed a dismal 77.4 rating behind an impressive
58.5 competion percentage and problematic 14 interceptions, and Weinke.
By the time the NFC's worst offense had righted itself, it was 'too
little, too late'. Management has made major strides to make a run
by adding quaterback Jake Delhomme(NO) to the legion. Most importantly,
though, Kevin Dyson(TEN) and Ricky Proehl(ST.L) should open up
plenty of space for two the NFC's top 20 receivers in the NFC,
Muhammed and Smith, who both averaged over 58 yards per game. Abandoning
the troublesome Lamar Smith, they picked up a true professional
in Washington's Stephen Davis, who managed a respectable 4.0 average
on his 207 attempts last year; fumbles may be quelled by a coaching
staff enthusiastic with a running attack. Having closed against
soft competition, the Panthers will launch from an epic close of the
season taking 4 of 5 ATS to get a running start in 2003 (if they
can find a hero to step up in the secondary).
NEW ORLEANS
to win NFC SOUTH: +500 (+450)
to win OVER 8 games: 120 (-155)
to win UNDER 8 games: -120 (+115)
For those of you that have partied all night in Jazz Fest know two things;
southern chicks are HOT and anything can happen there :-). Management continues
to turn the dials imaginatively looking for the elusive playoff berth. For those
of you who care to watch, the acquisition of Bouman (who we coined as the
'Flying Frenchman')is a smart move. This guy
can win ball games by managing an offense and finding targets downfield. He will
be a critical back-up to Albert Brooks, who managed a NFC leading 5.1% touchdown
percentage, and a 80.1 rating in an injury-ridden year; the trouble were his 15
interceptions that turned games. The key acquisition of TE, Ernie Conwell
should loosen up defenses for 'The Deuce', the NFL's #5 running back with 1388
yards in 2002, and Joe Horn (88 receptions for 1312 yards), who was only a few
feet behind Moss for the NFC receiving title. With new recruits on the defensive
line, including DT, Henry Ford, characterized by GM Mickey Loomis as "a really
good football player", (Football Guys, ESPN.com, 7.28.03)
they must assist Grady Jackson in slowing opposing
defenses that mounted 124.3 yards per game on the ground. Even more important
are the additions of CB, Ashley Ambrose(ATL), and S, Tebucky Jones(NE) will truly
be the key in turning the 'D' around; tightening up a league worst 12.1 yards per
completion, and 24.3 points per game.
TAMPA BAY
to win NFC SOUTH: -155 (-175)
to win OVER 10.5 games: 130 (-155)
to win UNDER 10.5 games: -110 (+115)
What has been proven to me through the first two preseason games is that other
teams don't play poorly versus the Bucs, their defense simply makes them look
foolish. Their run for the title was led by the NFC's #1 defense, allowing
only 12.3 points and 97.1 rushing yards per game. They will again be led by
NFC sack leader, Simeon Rice (15.5 sacks) and Warren Sapp (7.5 sacks), whose
abhorrent style and manner let him fly. While Warren gets the press, the
defense is truly driven by the linebackers, Brooks and Quarles, who combined
for 231 tackles, Brooks with 11 passes defended and 5 interceptions for 218
yards. Averaging only 1.3 turnovers per game, the defense doesn't slow,
they stop opposing offenses in their tracks. Worth even more praise is the
secondary, who shaped up under Rhonde Barber (key to their Super Bowl victory).
With this crew, the fact the offense only rushed for 97 rushing yards, and
averaged only 215.3 yards through the air per game is mute. However, Gruden
will be find a key challenge in improving on a 3.8 yard per rush average with
Pittman facing felony domestic abuse charges, and newcomer, Jones. They will
be counting on Alsott (who only put up 548 yards in 2002). Little needs to
be said about the fireworks this receiving corps provides in Johnson (one
of the NFC's best with a 14.3 per catch average), McCardell, and Jurevicious
(one of my favorite receivers), who combined for over 2100 yards in 2002.
The icing on the cake is the dramatic Martin Gramatica, who will look to
improve on his 32 of 39 field goals last year. IF THEY AVOID INJURY THEY
WILL BE THE TEAM TO BEAT FOR AN NFC TITLE.
WEST
ARIZONA
to win NFC EAST: +4000 (+2500)
to win OVER 5 games: -115 (-120)
to win UNDER 5 games: -125 (+120)
Am I the only one to see the Cardinals as a franchise in trouble closing the
final stretch of the season being outscored by an average of 16 points per game.
In grand ol' style, they sacrifice 'The Snake' in favor of Jeff Blake, who mounted one of the AFC's worst passing percentage at
55.9%, and only 13 passing touchdowns throughout 2002 with the Ravens. With
Boston's departure as the other offensive anchor, insiders are unsure exactly
who he will be throwing to? Having failed to work well with Lewis and Brookins,
he may just have the opposite effect on Marcel Shipp, who had an outstanding
season in 2002 averaging 4.4 yards per carry on his way to a respectable 834 yards.
This combination has 'Cellar-Dweller' written all over it......just when you
think it will be a 'Cold' Zona, management turns up the HEAT with the spiciest
move of the spring. Packing the front line with guards Teag Whiting and Tony
Wragge, they go ol' style, and pack an already powerful running attack with the
swift, remarkable Emmit Smith, who managed a respectable 975 yards on 15.9
carries per game last year under one of the worst offensive regimes that has
ever walked the sidelines. The draft seems to be playing right into their
hands...
ST. LOUIS
to win NFC WEST: +110 (+120)
to win OVER 9.5 games: -125 (+120)
to win UNDER 9.5 games: -115 (-160)
SAN FRANCISCO
to win NFC WEST: +105 (-125)
to win OVER 9.5 games: +105 (+125)
to win UNDER 9.5 games: -145 (-175)
The niners are in one of the toughest spots in the NFL due to the fact that
are not lead by a head coach but a wide receiver. It is really too bad.
"It's disappointing that we haven't gotten it done (aka Super Bowl).
But at the same time, there are 31 other teams out there can probably use
my services when it's all said and done," Owens commented this week.
(footballguys.com, Mercury News, 8.1.03)
The NFC's #4 offense will miss J.J. Stokes, whose 25.5 yards per game always
seemed to come at a critical time. The pass attack will now rely on Owens,
who led NFL receivers with 13 touchdown receptions 9with his Moss-type attitude),
and Tai Streets, who only picked up 47.2 yards per game. With wild cards
like TE, Eric Johnson and newcomer Jed Weaver as an outlet, even more pressure
will be on the running attack of Hearst and Barlow, who together are an
NFL leading rusher, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and treking 1600 yards
in 2003. The real question is Garcia, who has matured as a leader, whose
injured back may keep him from preseason. His offensive line allowing him
to be a true talent (only sacked 17 times for 93 yards), achieving a 1.9%
interception percentage on 3344 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. Upon a
closer look, it is the defense that keeps it close; holding opposing rushers
to 99.1 yards per game. Led by Andre Carter's 12.5 sacks, the linebacking
duo of Smith and Peterson slowed opposing offenses with over 200 tackles.
Even stronger are the corners where Jeff Webster forced 11 passes defended.
Already responsible for 2.1 turnovers a game, they seem to be peaking.
The loss of Okeafor and Stubblefield could be monumental unless a young
gun like Engelberger or Kirschke shines. Worse is their special teams,
whose K, Chandler, couldn't find the 'side of a barn'. Closing the season
0 and 5 ATS, the NFL's worst, we don't forsee the trend turning. Rough
waters - stay clear!
SEATTLE
to win NFC EAST: +500 (+700)
to win OVER 7.5 games: -160 (-155)
to win UNDER 7.5 games: +120 (+115)
Too many didn't realize the challenge the Seahawks faced over the last
two years; playing in Huskie stadium, and moving to one the NFC's toughest
divisions. The third year is the charm. Closing out 2003 as one the
NFC's hottest teams, taking 4 of 5 ATS, they will rely on the
NFC's #3 offense, powering 363.6 yards per game, the NFC's #2
passing attack, 254.9 yards per game through the air to lead them to
victory. They will be counting heavily the additions of De Chike
Okeafor(SF) and defensive tackle Norman Hand(NO) to improve on the
NFC's worst rush defense which allowed 152.6 yards per game. Plugging
these holes will be key in order to give the NFC's #2 rated quarterback (87.8),
Matt Hasselback, the chance to throw for the winning pass. "It's just that
he's so much more experienced. Matt feels the game, and senses what to do
and when to do it," offensive coordinator Gil Haskell said.
(footballguys.com, Post-Intelligencer, 8.5.03) We will be
jumping on their wagon Week 1.
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