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THE ODDS
as of 9/25/04
courtesy
mvpsportsbook.com
Pittsburgh 34
MIAMI -1
Jackonsville 36
Tennessee -6
Cleveland 37
N.Y. GIANTS -3
Baltimore -3
CINCINNATI 35
Houston 48.5
KANSAS CITY -8 (-9)
New Orleans 47.5
ST. LOUIS -6.5 (-7)
Chicago 44.5
MINNESOTA -10 (-9.5)
Philadelphia -4.5
DETROIT 44
Arizona 42.5
ATLANTA -10
San Diego 45.5
DENVER -10
Green Bay 49
INDIANAPOLIS -6 (-5.5)
San Francisco 43.5
SEATTLE -10 (-10.5)
Tampa Bay 34
OAKLAND -3 (-3.5)
Dallas 35
WASHINGTON -1 (-3)
Arizona 42.5
ATLANTA -10
Bye Week:
Buffalo
Carolina
New England
N.Y. Jets
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NFL REGULAR SEASON WEEK 3
-By The Director
09/22/04
Welcome to the Director's Exclusive NFL Picks. If you are new to the
site, The Director posts two (2) FREE NFL Picks here each Saturday, and
will post his Monday Night Subscription Pick here each Tuesday after
the conclusion of the game.
While most sites put you through a mysterious set of doors to retrieve
their pick, or provide you only 1 pick per week, The Director continues to
provide with you both his detailed 'KING OF THE HILL' ("as 'sure' as 'sure'
can be") and 'DOUBLE DOUBLE' ("icing on the cake") Free NFL Picks; both a
set up for his MONDAY SUBSCRIPTION PICK available to your e-mail box
each Monday Morning.
Over the last four years, The Director's FREE Picks have been featured on the
leading NFL sites and forums including OnlineSportsNetwork.com SportsPicks4Free.com
USASportsMonitor.com, SportsCrew.com, Playadaysports.com, BettorsAlliance.com
NFL First, HBO.com, Sports Handicapping Forum, CollegeFootballNews.com.
Continuing in 2004 all STRAIGHT picks are entered previous to kick-off, and
monitored independently by usasportsmonitor.net for accuracy.
'KING OF THE HILL'
"Vision is the art of seeing things invisible"
-JONATHAN SWIFT, Thoughts on Various Subjects
|
TEAM |
CURRENT
ODDS |
2004
RECORD |
2004
RECORD ATS |
KEY
PRESEASON
TREND |
Tampa Bay
|
0-2
|
34
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0-2
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0-3 ATS AFTER 3 STRAIGHT LOSSES OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS
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OAKLAND
|
1-1
|
-3
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1-0-1
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NO SIGNIFICANT TREND
|
9.25.04
Continuing to play it safe after the day's jitters are played out in the morning,
we will again play the late game. This game is what handicapping is all about.
In fact if you are a 'True' fan, there is almost no way to pass the one up.
Unlike many aspects of life, where human nature will dictate compassion, the Bucs'
injured and sputtering offense will be shown 'no mercy' as Oakland 'smell blood'.
If you are looking for a sequel to OPEN WATER, you have found it here.
The Raiders are a team that has recovered from their Super Bowl hangover;
one drive away from being 2-0. Unlike the Bucs, who now rely on Simms (66.5
rating) to drive one of the worst producing NFL offenses at 8 points per game,
the Raiders are moving the ball more effectively each game. Proven by Rice's
receiving record going by the wayside last week, Gannon (88.9 rating on 514
passing yards) is not taking risks this season to 'force the ball'. Although
they do not have a single NFL rusing or receiving leader, the Raiders' ability
to crank out 7.8 yards per attempt on a 60.9% completion percentage, has been
the key to their success.
With the Raider defense allowing only 17 points on 15.5 first downs and 240
total yards, Gruden's struggling Bucs, entering lacking its 3 primary receivers,
and featured running back, are hoping Sapp, Washington, and the black hole
ease up, and allow them to turn their tide from the 8 points, 61 rushing
for 220 total yards they have manager per game thus far; Garner (4.2 yard
per carry) will instead
find this to be a very unfriendly place. Although the Buc defense has been
outstanding in its ability to allow only 13 points on a 50% completion
percentage to opposing quarterbacks, the lack of an offensive scheme, and
2.5 turnovers per game will eventually assist Tampa self-destruct under
the pressure. For my friends headed to Oakland as I wrie, 'Revenge' will be
sweet.
OAKLAND -3
'DOUBLE, DOUBLE'
"The will to win is important, but the will to prepare is vital"
-JOE PATERNO
|
TEAM |
CURRENT
ODDS |
2004
RECORD |
2004
RECORD ATS |
KEY
PRESEASON
TREND |
Philadelphia
|
2-0
|
-3
|
2-0
|
21-9 ATS VS. CONFERENCE OVER LAST 3 YEARS
|
DETROIT
|
2-0
|
45.5
|
2-0
|
NO SIGNFICANT TREND
|
9.25.04
I am not going to say it. But you know what I am thinking; especailly if you
missed the Chiefs' or Pats' run in 2003. I said I wouldn't say it. If you were
working late on the West Coast, or live somewhere in Europe, you truly missed
something special. McNabb, the NFL's #1 rated passer at 129.4 on 575 passing yards,
came out under the lights and ran a powerful, balanced attack that broke the
Vikings' back before the game had even begun. With just the threat of T.O. (12.3
yards per carry), Westbrook continues to light up defenses with 6.5 yards
per carry. Lions beware.
Although the Eagles have been choppy at 3-3 ATS over the last 3 years after
playing on Monday night, that was not the new 'green machine', averaging 29
points per game on 7.1 yards per play. Keep in mind that the 411 yards on 5.9
yards per rush the Eagle defense allows is very misleading. This defense is
one of the most elastic so far until the opposition reaches the red zone, and the
game is simply out-of-reach.
Sure the Lions have been toting Harrington (93.8 rating), on the back of the
big play to Roy Williams (17.8 yards per catch); a few rushes by
Jone should also be mentioned (3.4 yards per carry). However, averaging only 15.5
first downs and 3.2 yards per rush, even Yoda would be confused by their
winning record.
One thing is for sure, with the Lions defense allowing 120 rushing yards, and
7.1 yards per attempt to opposition quarterbacks, Reid has to be excited
with the possibilities of unleashing his troops on this Lion defense on the
turf; a Lion team that enters 0-2 ATS against the NFC East, and 0-1 after 2
consescutive victories, over the last 3 seasons. Only one team heads back
to Philadelphia undefeated after this one.
Philadelphia -3
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Please note the following subscription pick was locked at
usasportsmonitor.net, i.d. 'footballandchicks.com',
recorded at Keen.com, and e-mailed to subscribers prior to 8am 9/13/03.
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TEAM |
CURRENT
ODDS |
2004
RECORD |
2004
RECORD ATS |
KEY
PRESEASON
TREND |
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9.26.04
(NFL, et)
-Rich Green
www.freesportletter.com
editor@freesportsletter.com
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SPORTS BETTING: PERCENTAGE NEEDED TO WIN?
Suppose you lay a wager of $100, if you win you would collect an equal amount
($100), but if you loss you would lose $110, a fee of 10% (Juice).
(Juice is the bookmaker's commission, also known as vig)
Example:
100 bets in equal amounts of $100 wagered per bet totals $5000. Assume you won
50% of the bets, you would have won on the winning games $5000 and on your losing
games you would have lost $5500. The results would be a deficit of $500. Be that
as it may the percentage needed to win is actually 52.4%.
Hypothetically, if you won 53 bets of $100 each, out of one hundred bets placed
(53%). Your return on the winning bets is $5300 and the losing bets would total
$5170. Bottom line profit is $130 net.
The number you need to have a profitable season in betting Football or Basketball
is fifty-three percent (53%) or better.
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THIS WEEK'S FEATURED MODEL
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